Nate Silver with Clayton Aldern

Civics

What can professional risk-takers — poker players and hedge fund managers, crypto true believers and blue-chip art collectors— teach us much about navigating the uncertainty of the twenty-first century?

In the bestselling The Signal and the Noise, statistician Nate Silver showed how forecasting would define the age of Big Data. Now, in his timely and riveting new book, On the Edge, Silver investigates “The River,” or those whose mastery of risk allows them to shape — and dominate — so much of modern life. People in “The River” have increasing amounts of wealth and power in our society, and understanding their mindset — including the flaws in their thinking — is key to understanding what drives technology and the global economy today. There are certain commonalities in this otherwise diverse group: high tolerance for risk, appreciation of uncertainty, affinity for numbers, skill at decoupling, self-reliance, and a distrust of conventional wisdom. For those in The River, complexity is baked in, and the work is how to navigate it, without going beyond the pale.

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